Let me start off with a hat tip to “Political Statistics”, whose Substack article about the US CDC All-Cause Mortality dataset inspired me to do some digging and analyzing of my own.
The 0-14 year old age group normally are injected with a truckload of various vaccines, because they are safe and effective, of course. During the 2020-2021 time frame, due to lockdowns and restricted access to "normal" medical procedures, many of the 0-14 year olds didn't get those life saving vaccines. Yet, they had an improved rate of all cause mortality. Interesting.
Nice work. Hospital doctors were cutting patients' throats in Spring, 2020 - often killing them because mechanical ventilation was later shown to be overused. I wouldn't be surprised if medical decisions were even worse in 2021 as the COVID panic metastasized.
On second thought, COVID seasonality could be shifted between 2020 and 2021. So maybe Q3 looks worse in one year and Q2 or Q4 in another. Annual totals with the break in the low season are probably more reliable, so we would have to wait until Spring, 2022.
I absolutely plan to do that. Unfortunately, the data lag is pretty handsome for this CDC dataset, so I'm going to have to wait a few weeks to get good numbers. I'm chomping at the bit, TBH!
To put it in Pfizer-Trial type terms (i.e., to spin the data in the way most favourable to the thesis)... relative to 2015-2019, all-cause mortality in 2021Q3 was 30% 'more elevated' than 2020Q3.
I see a lot of silent ambulances, last 6 months...and wonder if they have been told to keep it quiet except through intersections. Wouldn't some US morticians speak up? or are they too busy...I know the UK mortician John O'Looney has spoken out alot, more should. This must be crazy for them and they have to know it is not Covid or Omnicron killng these folks.
This lines up with an article from an insurance company which said all cause deaths are up 40% in 18-64 age group from pre-covid levels. We know 85% of covid deaths are in the 75+ age group. We all know the cause. It’s sad it’s being let to happen if not pushed harder. Especially on kids. People need to wake up.. quick.
Yes, I saw that article. I am looking forward to writing a similar article for Q4, but I dread seeing what happens in the youngest age groups. This is one of those cases where you want to be cautious but not correct 😔😔
Agree. The way I see it it’s the insurance sector/mortality numbers that can end this nightmare. Can’t hide those numbers. The sooner this ends the sooner thousands of lives are saved.
I'm surprised to see excess mortality in 2020. When I was looking at it last March/April it looked lower something like 48k a week instead of the 55-60k a week from previous years. I'm going on memory here.
So is the excess mortality for 2020 concentrated towards the end of the yar.
I know a lot of people were saying that near the end of 2020, but there is a pretty decent lag in death reporting for our CDC datasets, so you really have to wait about 6 weeks before you can call it done. I don't know that COVID itself would've bumped up the death numbers that much, though; a lot of it was, as Guttermouth pointed out, delayed care, suicides, and overdoses--just the way they intended it to be!
With all the noise in the signal, all- cause mortality is really the only thing you can meaningfully point to, but you can compare 2019, 2020, and 2021 to make some worthwhile theories about the impact of evil NPIs and vaccines vs. COVID.
Lockdown deaths, I'd say. They'd be a lagging indicator for things like delayed medical procedures killing people and mental health to decline long enough to begin generating more suicides and overdoses.
I'm not surprised to see excess mortality for 2020. I'm just curious to see if NPI murders for 2020 will beat pharmaceutical murders for 2021.
The 0-14 year old age group normally are injected with a truckload of various vaccines, because they are safe and effective, of course. During the 2020-2021 time frame, due to lockdowns and restricted access to "normal" medical procedures, many of the 0-14 year olds didn't get those life saving vaccines. Yet, they had an improved rate of all cause mortality. Interesting.
Indeed, quite interesting!
Nice work. Hospital doctors were cutting patients' throats in Spring, 2020 - often killing them because mechanical ventilation was later shown to be overused. I wouldn't be surprised if medical decisions were even worse in 2021 as the COVID panic metastasized.
I had also looked at CDC all-cause deaths, and found a concerning lack of COVID seasonality for under-45s. https://norstadt.substack.com/p/are-the-usa-sacrificing-the-young
On second thought, COVID seasonality could be shifted between 2020 and 2021. So maybe Q3 looks worse in one year and Q2 or Q4 in another. Annual totals with the break in the low season are probably more reliable, so we would have to wait until Spring, 2022.
Agreed. I'm looking forward to having the full 2021 data set in a few weeks.
Great article, thank you!
Great post
Great post! Wondering if you could do an update with data for January that would include updated numbers, specifically for children?
I absolutely plan to do that. Unfortunately, the data lag is pretty handsome for this CDC dataset, so I'm going to have to wait a few weeks to get good numbers. I'm chomping at the bit, TBH!
That is so well done and explained. I thank you.
To put it in Pfizer-Trial type terms (i.e., to spin the data in the way most favourable to the thesis)... relative to 2015-2019, all-cause mortality in 2021Q3 was 30% 'more elevated' than 2020Q3.
Safe and effective.
https://rumble.com/vt16g0-update-from-john-olooney-19th-january-2022..html an update from John O'Looney about his brief hospitalization with...and escape from hospital after lots of pressure to take vax and other bad drugs that may have injured him further...
I see a lot of silent ambulances, last 6 months...and wonder if they have been told to keep it quiet except through intersections. Wouldn't some US morticians speak up? or are they too busy...I know the UK mortician John O'Looney has spoken out alot, more should. This must be crazy for them and they have to know it is not Covid or Omnicron killng these folks.
This lines up with an article from an insurance company which said all cause deaths are up 40% in 18-64 age group from pre-covid levels. We know 85% of covid deaths are in the 75+ age group. We all know the cause. It’s sad it’s being let to happen if not pushed harder. Especially on kids. People need to wake up.. quick.
Yes, I saw that article. I am looking forward to writing a similar article for Q4, but I dread seeing what happens in the youngest age groups. This is one of those cases where you want to be cautious but not correct 😔😔
Agree. The way I see it it’s the insurance sector/mortality numbers that can end this nightmare. Can’t hide those numbers. The sooner this ends the sooner thousands of lives are saved.
I'm surprised to see excess mortality in 2020. When I was looking at it last March/April it looked lower something like 48k a week instead of the 55-60k a week from previous years. I'm going on memory here.
So is the excess mortality for 2020 concentrated towards the end of the yar.
I know a lot of people were saying that near the end of 2020, but there is a pretty decent lag in death reporting for our CDC datasets, so you really have to wait about 6 weeks before you can call it done. I don't know that COVID itself would've bumped up the death numbers that much, though; a lot of it was, as Guttermouth pointed out, delayed care, suicides, and overdoses--just the way they intended it to be!
With all the noise in the signal, all- cause mortality is really the only thing you can meaningfully point to, but you can compare 2019, 2020, and 2021 to make some worthwhile theories about the impact of evil NPIs and vaccines vs. COVID.
Lockdown deaths, I'd say. They'd be a lagging indicator for things like delayed medical procedures killing people and mental health to decline long enough to begin generating more suicides and overdoses.
I'm not surprised to see excess mortality for 2020. I'm just curious to see if NPI murders for 2020 will beat pharmaceutical murders for 2021.
Yes, I'm aware of Ms. Fitts' work! Thank you for adding your thoughts.